Designing an evaluation: Theory of change

What is a theory of change (ToC)?

A theory of change is a description, often visual description, of how an intervention or programme intends to create change. It should be a comprehensive model that maps out how, why and in what conditions social change is expected to happen in a particular context. This strategic planning and evaluation tool helps organisations understand the relationships between their activities and their long-term goals, essentially creating a roadmap for social impact.

At ImpactEd Evaluation, designing a Theory of Change, often through a ToC workshop, is typically the first step in any evaluation design. While most evaluations begin with ToC development, some organisations may already have one in place. In such cases, we recommend a brief, low-touch review to ensure alignment with the organisation’s current evaluation needs and revise it as necessary. The scope and objectives of the evaluation ultimately shape the nature and scale of this process.

A theory of change should set out:

• A visual and/or narrative description of how an intervention or programme will create impact
• Sets out the logical steps by which outcomes are achieved and identifies the causal pathways for change
• A representation of this journey, from intermediate inputs to long-term outcomes
• Defines and measures ‘success’ in a way that goes beyond the bottom line, focusing on social good

The process involves articulating clear outcomes, mapping causal pathways, identifying assumptions, and determining appropriate indicators to measure progress, making it an invaluable tool for organisations seeking to create meaningful social change. The idea was developed to help charities define and measure success in the absence of a ‘profit motive’.

In this blog, we will outline our approach to developing ToC at ImpactEd Evaluation and share some best practices that we have learnt along the way. We’ll explore ToC design in three stages: how to prepare for a ToC design, what to focus on during, and what matters after the design process.

How to prepare for the design of Theory of change?

The first step in any Theory of Change (ToC) design process is to build a clear understanding of the organisation and the programme it is being developed for. At ImpactEd, we usually begin by having in-depth conversations with our partners, often guided by these questions:

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Exploring these questions helps us situate the ToC within the organisation’s broader aims, shape the tone and style that will be most useful, and determine the scope of the work. This phase typically concludes with gathering and reviewing sufficient contextual materials relevant to the intervention or programme for which the ToC is being developed.

How to design a theory of change

An important element of this the design phase is often a ToC workshop, though partners may decide on the most suitable approach depending on their budget, organisational structure, and the objectives of this work. The purpose of a ToC workshop is to bring together all key people and information relevant to its design, ensuring a comprehensive 360-degree perspective is captured. Ideally, this involves inviting at least one staff member from each department closely connected to the programme and impact, so that the ToC can be built collaboratively.

The design process should also reflect the values of the partner organisation. For example, when working with organisations that deliver youth-led programmes and prioritise youth voice, we would invite young people to participate in the sessions. Ideally, the approach to designing a ToC - whether through desk-based reviews, consultative workshops, or a combination - along with the plan for delivering that method and identifying relevant participants, should all be co-decided by the partner organisation.

Ideally, it is useful to have a draft ToC prepared ahead of the workshop, as this can help guide the discussions. The one- to two-hour workshop is typically a space to confirm our shared understanding and framing of impact, sense-check causal pathways, and test assumptions or potential barriers to change. Depending on the participants, we may introduce activities and tools to build consensus, manage disagreements, and work methodically towards a shared end goal.

Once this important multi-stakeholder discussion is complete, a round of desk-based research can help the evaluator understand how our shared knowledge of the programme aligns with or diverges from the wider evidence base in the field. For example, there may be common outcomes or indicators of measurement frequently used in similar contexts that we have not yet considered. Where budget allows, it is also valuable to produce a narrative to accompany the ToC, explaining the rationale behind key decisions and how the final design is tailored to the programme.

How to align with your theory of change stakeholders?

After the ToC output is developed, it is good practice to share it back with the partner team to confirm that they agree with both the elements included and the way they have been framed. This review process can be complex, as different team members may hold different perspectives depending on their role in delivery or impact. Mediating these conversations and drawing out the most valuable insights is key. It helps to be clear from the outset about the level and scope of review expected from each person, so that everyone can contribute effectively. It is also useful to sense-check which aspects participants feel strongly about discussing, versus which they are comfortable setting aside.

While consensus on the primary outcome is important, it is realistic to expect differences in how different elements of a ToC are worded or measured. Entering these discussions with an open mindset is essential, and we ask our partner organisations to do the same - willing to be corrected, challenged, and surprised.

At this stage, depending on the purpose of the ToC, we may create different versions and provide guidance on how each can be used. With this stage complete, we are ready to move on to the next phase: operationalising the ToC through a robust and realistic evaluation plan.

Social impact is complex, layered and often difficult to measure. Organisations need more than just good intentions to create meaningful change. A theory of change serves as a strategic roadmap for achieving lasting impact. A good theory of change should

• Clarify the benefits of what you do, and how you think they affect your users
• Provide a clear way of explaining the purpose of what you do, especially to stakeholders or customers who might not see the potential for longer-term impact
• Inform strategic decisions, ensuring that everything you do is aligned with your aims
• Ensure that the things you choose to measure are linked to your overall aim

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